The big story of this last week was volatility. Most of the reports last week gave weight to the slowing economy theory. Home starts declined again this week and are now down to the lowest number since 1968. This is still the overhang from the bursting of the housing bubble, and we won’t see a significant degree of new starts until the economy is on the upswing and a good portion of the extra housing units have been absorbed (make that homes are selling again). Weekly unemployment claims were up again, with nearly 500,000 new claims. This number is a whole lot better than the worst of the crisis, but the claims are growing again (mostly because government paid census workers are off their jobs), so this adds more doubts of a real recovery. Probably the most influential report released last week was the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey. This is a measure of business activity in the Philadelphia region. It was expected to show a slight increase in activity, but the results came in with a decrease of 7.7% from the previous month, much worse than expected. In addition to all the news in these reports, stocks were lower, too. So mortgage rates should be lower, right?
Usually, bad news for the economy means good news for mortgage rates. But right now, even though rates are at all time lows, rates are holding, but volatility is increasing. Mortgage rates are determined in good part by activity in the mortgage backed securities (MBS, a type of bond) market. With all the bad economic news over the last months, there has been a flight to quality with investors leaving riskier investments and putting their money in safer spots. The safest investment of all is considered to be US treasuries, and mortgages, being backed by the US government, come in close behind. The chart below shows activity in the MBS market over the past month. Each figure is one days worth of trading. The green figures show that prices improved over the course of the day (trending toward lower rates) while the red marks show deterioration in the days prices (higher rates). Look at the last week’s activity. The longer length of each figure means there was a big trading range for the day, and the preponderance of red means a nervous market. So what gives?
I think there are two things working here. First of all, investors are rethinking the risk in these bonds. By buying MBS they are taking on a fixed rate return over a long period of time. If stocks dive or other investments have negative returns, this is a wise strategy. But the return is so low, and rates have fallen so fast, that there is concern from some that we are in a bond bubble. If any hint of inflation comes out, these returns will quickly evaporate. So all of a sudden investors are getting cautious and holding off and reconsidering their positions. Another big factor is that a lot of these bonds are bought by mortgage companies to hedge their production. One big risk for consumers, is that with rates as low as they are, the mortgage industry is running close to capacity. We are in a big refinance boom again, and our pipelines are fuller than they have been since the beginning of last year. When this happens, mortgage companies often control their volume by pricing higher. I do my personal banking at one of the mega banks that are trying to control everything. Whenever I go into their lobby I always check out their marquee sign which tells their daily mortgage rates. We are always priced lower, usually by an 1/8 or a quarter of a point on the best conforming borrowers. I stopped in last week, and the rate on the sign was 3/8 higher in rate, plus a point in fees (each point is 1% of the loan amount). The difference here is jaw dropping. If you took on a $300,000 mortgage through them on these terms, that means an extra $3,000 in up-front costs, and about $60 more per month in payments. But there is a strategy to this. These rates tell me that they are overwhelmed with business, and can’t handle extra volume. Instead of putting up a closed sign and not taking in any additional applications, they raise the rates to slow the flow of inbound business. Wholesale lenders are doing the same thing, though not so drastically. What this means to you, if you are in the market to refinance or take on a new mortgage, is that these rates may be as good as it’s going to get. At least for a while. A lot of the bad news is already baked into the system, and there may be more risk on the upside. Rates are great, and I expect we will stay in this range for a while, but if you are waiting for rates to drop even further, you may have a long wait.
Here are the current Chicago Illinois Home mortgage rates for an A+ (740 Fico or above), full doc single family home purchase or rate/term refinance on a 45 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee, best FHA rates assume a 660 Fico score, but loans are available with credit scores as low as 620. Mortgage rates in other states may be slightly different, give me a call and I will give you an accurate quote for your particular situation. The conventional and FHA rates are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. Again, there are many factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, or to get pre-approved for a mortgage, give me a call or contact me (Illinois mortgage company) and I will take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you:
Conventional loans up to $417,000
| 30 year fixed rate |
4.375% |
4.58% |
| 15 Year fixed Rate |
4.00% |
4.165% |
| 5-1 A.R.M. |
3.375% |
3.579% |
For Jumbo loans over $417,000
| 30 Year Fixed Rate* |
5.50% |
%5.67% |
*(Another option is to break your Jumbo loan into 2 parts a conventional to the limit of $417,000 and a HELOC or fixed second mortgage for the rest. The blended rate is usually much better than a single loan would be.)
| 5-5 A.R.M. ** |
4.25% w/ 0 points |
4.34%** APR |
| 5-5 A.R.M. ** |
4.00% w/ 1 Point |
4.37% APR |
** 5-5 ARM is fixed for first 5 years, with 2/6 caps it can’t go more than 2% above the start rate for the next 5 years. 2% cap for next 5 years – so a blended rate over 10 years is no more than 1% over the start rate. Super Jumbos available.
FHA LOANS 3.5% down payment FHA Maximum varies by County
| FHA 30 year fixed |
4.25% with 1 Pt |
4.979% APR |
| FHA 30 year fixed |
4.375% with 0 Pts |
4.786% APR |
| FHA 5-1 ARM |
3.625% with 1Pt |
4.385% APR |
| FHA 5-1 ARM |
3.75% with 0 Pts |
4,159% APR |
FHA APR reflects 3.5% down payment and the effect of mortgage insurance on the loan. Call for information on no-cost FHA streamlined Refinances
FHA 203K Rehab Loans – Call for Quote
VA Veterans Administration 0 Down Loans
| VA 30 Year Fixed Rate |
4.375% with 1Pt Origination |
5.086% APR |
| VA 30 Year Fixed Rate |
4.50% with 0 Pts |
4.774% APR |
Call for information on no-cost VA Streamlined Refinances
These are just a few of the mortgage programs and mortgage rates available. Which option is best for you depends on your own specific goals and needs. If you have any questions or want to go over your situation in depth, let me know how I can help.
Peter Thompson 630-479-6424
Illinois Mortgage Rates First time home buyer loans
Chicago Mortgage Company