The real estate market is a mess. Almost every day I talk with people fighting to save their homes. I have daily conversations with homeowners who want to
refinance their mortgages, but can’t because their home values are too low. I know too many good Realtors who are looking for full time jobs, because they can’t support themselves and their families doing what they are so well suited for. I get it. The economy is in a recession, but the real estate market is in a depression.
Time magazine gets it too. Their recent cover story, Rethinking Homeownership, talks about all the problems in the real estate market. It notes the problems of foreclosures and short sales and how trillions of dollars of home equity have evaporated over the last few years. But Time takes this a step further. The point of the article is that with things so tough in the real estate market, it no longer makes sense to own your own home. This is a real head shaker, and a common flaw in logic. They are taking a current trend and projecting it on into the foreseeable future. If things are bad now, they will always bad and will probably get worse (or the flipside, things are good and they will only get better). Time is famous for these types of stories. They have called for new highs in the stock market right before the markets dived, and I am sure that president Gullianni and President Hillary Clinton had to feel a bit queasy when they got their cover stories early in the last presidential primary season.
Time had another cover story on real estate back in 2005, but the point of that one was that with real estate prices heading higher, you could use your home as an ATM and everyone would have a McMansion soon. In this article they took the current trend and used that to say that the real estate market would continue to boom on into the future. At the time, the market was building up to its peak and they turned out to be spectacularly wrong. I expect that in another five years we will look back and their new article will look just as ridiculous. I’m not saying that the market is about to boom. There are real structural problems to the economy. With unemployment high and a huge inventory of distressed properties to deal with, home prices are likely to remain low for a long time. But those who are buying now at prices a fraction of where they were a few years back and at interest rates in the 4s are miles ahead of those who bought when Time last called for a boom.
Having a home of your own has always been part of the American dream. Homeownership gives you control and there are a lot of personal and emotional reasons to own. But let’s look at the meat of the article, is it true that it no longer make financial sense to buy a home?
There are 4 major financial benefits to home ownership. Let’s see if these still apply:
Equity build up – Assuming you are buying a home with a traditional mortgage, part of your payment each month goes to pay down the loan. The mortgage payment is split between principal and interest, and in the early years you are paying mostly interest. But with every payment you pay a little less interest an a little more principal. Most people don’t stay in a house to pay off the mortgage, but if you did, at the end of the term you would own your home free and clear. If you continued to rent, you would still be renting at the end. This is still a strong advantage of home ownership.
Price appreciation – Back when Time wrote the article in 2005, this was the big attraction to real estate. The thinking then was that if you bought today, the home was sure to be worth more tomorrow. Historically home prices do rise over time, at least keeping up with inflation. But the early years of this decade the real estate market was part of a bubble, and with cheap money flooding the system underwriting standards went out the window. So nearly anyone could qualify for a mortgage. This in turn brought on a building boom, and we are now dealing with an over supply of housing at the same time that demand is low. So does this mean appreciation is a relic of the past? Maybe, but I doubt it. New home building has ground to a halt. Eventually the economy will improve and all of a sudden all the potential buyers sitting on the sidelines will be in the market again. This is all about supply and demand, and right now with supply high and demand low, the buyers who are out there are getting screaming good deals. That is what happens in a buyer’s market. So my guess is that if you buy low, when others are afraid to, there will be appreciation down the line.
Leverage – This goes along with appreciation. Mortgages are available with low down payments (FHA offers loans with just 3.5% down) so you don’t need a lot of money up front in order to own your own home. This not only makes homeownership affordable, but it means that if prices do rise, your return is magnified. If you buy a home for $100,000 without a mortgage and it goes up $10,000 in value over time, you have gotten a 10% return($100,000 invested divided by the $10,000 increase). If you took on a mortgage for 90% of that and used a down payment of $10,000, that same $10,000 increase in value is now a 100% return on your cash invested ($10,000 invested divided by the $10,000 increase). Again, appreciation isn’t automatic, but when it happens leverage means you build equity faster.
Tax advantages – Uncle Sam loves real estate. Home owners are given tax exemptions for the interest part of the mortgage, the real estate taxes and in many cases mortgage insurance. This makes sense because home owners have deeper roots to the community and this helps build a stronger society, but the bottom line is that the government helps you pay for the cost of owning your home. Every now and then you hear cries for eliminating these exemptions, but the chances of this happening are about as close to zero as you can get. This is still a strong financial benefit of owning real estate.
The financial benefits of owning a home are as strong now as they have ever been. If history is a guide, Time’s bold stand against home ownership is a good sign that we have hit the bottom of the cycle and the turn around is starting. I don’t think this will be a quick change in the market. Home prices could still drop a little further and we are likely to bump along at the bottom for a while before the market improves. But for those who are willing to look to the long term this could be a great time to buy.
Peter Thompson 630-479-6424
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