Mortgage rates moved higher this week as bond investors chose to look at the bright side of the news. Markets run on emotion and this means swings in prices based on the mood of the moment. Mortgage rates had dropped to their all time lows over the last few weeks as fear of a double dip recession took hold. With gloom in the air, investors bought treasury bonds for safety, and mortgages went along for the ride. When you buy bonds, whether they are treasury bonds or mortgage bonds, you are locking in a fixed return for a long period of time. With fear the dominant emotion, investors were locking in low, low returns. If the economy turns lower or deflation takes hold, these low returns will still mean that investors aren’t losing, and it will be a positive trade. But if the gloomy consensus is wrong and the economy improves, that means the investors are tying up their funds for almost no return. They would either have to hold on to the bond and collect a meager return, or sell the bond at a loss so they can put their money into investments with better prospects. So when the economy showed a few glimmers of light, it wasn’t that surprising that money would rush out of bonds and rates would rise. The two reports that made the difference were the release of the Fed Beige book, and the weekly unemployment claims. The line in the Fed’s beige book that sparked the activity, stated – "Continued growth…mid-July through the end of August, but with widespread signs of a deceleration." In other words, it sounds like a train is coming, but it isn’t here yet. With this statement the stock market rallied and bonds sold off. More damage was done when the weekly unemployment claims fell by 27,000 to 451,000. Economists had projected claims would fall to 470,000, so this is an improvement. On the other hand, unemployment is still distressingly high, and because this was done over a shortened Labor Day weekend, some question the accuracy of the report. The bottom line is that there are a few points of light, but the picture is still very dark.
So the question is, have we seen the bottom of the low mortgage rates, and if Rates are higher, have you missed out on your opportunity to take advantage of the low rates? Mortgage rates are still near their all time lows, so for most people a little blip won’t make a big difference. But for those who have sat on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop even lower, there may be a long wait. The chart below (courtesy of mortgagecoach.com), shows what has happened in the mortgage backed securities (mortgage bonds) market over the past month.
The higher the level on the chart, the lower the mortgage rates should be. The green bars show days where the prices improved from the opening, and red showed days that worsened. The two things you can see from this chart are that, first, mortgage bonds are volatile. There is a lot of movement from day to day, even when rates seem to be holding steady. Secondly, mortgage bonds are sitting at their worst level in the last month. We have been in a range, and it is entirely possible that now that we have hit the low point of the range rates will bounce back. But if optimism holds, rates could get much worse, at least for a while. My own feeling is that we still have a long way to go before the economy is back on track, and rates are likely to remain low for a long time. At the same time, I don’t see us getting any lower than where we have been over the last few weeks. I won’t be surprised if rates increase another 1/8 or a 1/4 of a point over the next weeks, but we are still in a long time low range, and these rates are still at bargain levels.
Here are the current Chicago Illinois Home mortgage rates for an A+ (740 Fico or above), full doc single family home purchase or rate/term refinance on a 45 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee, best FHA rates assume a 660 Fico score, but loans are available with credit scores as low as 620. Mortgage rates in other states may be slightly different, give me a call and I will give you an accurate quote for your particular situation. The conventional and FHA rates are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. Again, there are many factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, or to get pre-approved for a mortgage, give me a call or contact me (Illinois mortgage company) and I will take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you:
Conventional loans up to $417,000
| 30 year fixed rate |
4.50% |
4.637% |
| 15 Year fixed Rate |
4.125% |
4.269% |
| 5-1 A.R.M. |
3.50% |
3.684% |
For Jumbo loans over $417,000
| 30 Year Fixed Rate* |
5.25% |
5.367% |
*(Another option is to break your Jumbo loan into 2 parts a conventional to the limit of $417,000 and a HELOC or fixed second mortgage for the rest. The blended rate is usually much better than a single loan would be.)
| 5-5 A.R.M. ** |
4.125% w/ .5 points |
4.34%** APR |
| 5-5 A.R.M. ** |
3.875% w/ 1 Point |
4.37% APR |
** 5-5 ARM is fixed for first 5 years, with 2/6 caps it can’t go more than 2% above the start rate for the next 5 years. 2% cap for next 5 years – so a blended rate over 10 years is no more than 1% over the start rate. Super Jumbos available.
FHA LOANS 3.5% down payment FHA Maximum varies by County
| FHA 30 year fixed |
4.375% with 1 Pt |
4.979% APR |
| FHA 30 year fixed |
4.50% with 0 Pts |
4.786% APR |
| FHA 5-1 ARM |
3.75% with 1Pt |
4.385% APR |
| FHA 5-1 ARM |
3.875% with 0 Pts |
4,159% APR |
FHA APR reflects 3.5% down payment and the effect of mortgage insurance on the loan. Call for information on no-cost FHA streamlined Refinances
FHA 203K Rehab Loans – Call for Quote
VA Veterans Administration 0 Down Loans
| VA 30 Year Fixed Rate |
4.50% with 1Pt Origination |
5.086% APR |
| VA 30 Year Fixed Rate |
4.625% with 0 Pts |
4.774% APR |
Call for information on no-cost VA Streamlined Refinances
These are just a few of the mortgage programs and mortgage rates available. Which option is best for you depends on your own specific goals and needs. If you have any questions or want to go over your situation in depth, let me know how I can help.
Peter Thompson 630-479-6424
Illinois Mortgage Rates First time home buyer loans
Chicago Mortgage Company